SWODY1
SPC AC 311251
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0651 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WILL BE THE EWD PROGRESSION OF ONE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER TROUGH THAT
WILL MOVE EWD FROM SRN CA TO TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NRN
PLAINS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE SEWD TO AN AXIS FROM NW OH TO SE OK BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY FROM THE NW GULF
COAST INTO ERN OK...AND THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION BY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. HERE...A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT AND
WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY COULD PROMOTE
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP ELEVATED CONVECTION FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.
FARTHER SW...A WEAKENING MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING NEWD OVER SE
TX/SW LA...AND THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LAPSE RATES ALOFT REMAIN RELATIVELY
POOR AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY WARM FOR
LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION FROM S TX INTO WRN LA.
STILL...ISOLATED STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SE TX AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES GRADUALLY IN A WEAK WAA REGIME...AND THIS
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEWD BY TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE CENTRAL TX
AREA WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THIS THREAT.
..THOMPSON/GARNER.. 01/31/2012
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