SWODY1
SPC AC 311928
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012
VALID 312000Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA TO
REMOVE THUNDER FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN IND AND CENTRAL KY.
LAPSE RATES AND CAPE VALUES ACROSS THIS AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR UPDRAFTS/CHARGE SEPARATION. HOWEVER
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK UNTIL VERY NEAR 12Z EAST OF THE
LOUISVILLE AREA.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 01/31/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST TUE JAN 31 2012/
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PWAT ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS RETURNING NORTHWARD TODAY ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET PERSISTS
OVER THE AREA. COINCIDENT LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND
LIFT...COUPLED WITH FORCING ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE OH VALLEY INTO TX/LA MAINLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG OVER THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY VALUES AND
PRECLUDE A RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
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