ACUS01 KWNS 261620
SWODY1
SPC AC 261618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OK...
...OK...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
EASTERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS TX/OK WITH DEWPOINTS RISING THROUGH THE 50S. LOW
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING OVER WESTERN OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX...BUT
ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY OVER THE BULK OF OK. THIS
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND KEEP A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION
IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z.
BY EARLY EVENING...LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NM/TX TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE MOIST AXIS OVER OK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CAP AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL OK. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500+
J/KG. FAVORABLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORM
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF HAIL. WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...IT APPEARS THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT TODAY.
THE SUITE OF STORM-SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING /NAM
NESTS...NMM...NSSL...HRRR/ SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF GREATEST RISK OF SUPERCELL STORMS THIS EVENING AFTER
00Z. THIS AREA OF WESTERN/CENTRAL OK HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A 30
PERCENT HAIL RISK.
..HART/GARNER.. 04/26/2013
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