DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 260857
SWOD48
SPC AC 260856

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT FRI APR 26 2013

VALID 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE U.S. MUCH OF THE 4-8 PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANY
HIGHER COVERAGE SEVERE EVENTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.

DAYS 4-5 A SERIES OF WEAK SRN STREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
WELL DETACHED FROM BELT OF FASTER WLYS...AND AS A RESULT WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE SERN STATES. BY DAY 6 A
NRN STREAM TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SEWD THROUGH NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY ACCOMPANIED BY A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT THAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SERN STATES DAY 7. MODIFIED CP AIR
WILL RETURN NWD THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR RESULTING IN SOME
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...THE STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POST FRONTAL RESULTING IN MODEST SHEAR
IN WARM SECTOR. WHILE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...OVERALL POTENTIAL DOES NOT APPEAR
TO WARRANT A 30% OR GREATER COVERAGE AREA.

..DIAL.. 04/26/2013

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