SWOD48
SPC AC 070856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 AM CST WED NOV 07 2007
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL JET EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. IN RESPONSE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION AS A SFC
LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE SEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF HANDLE THE SYSTEM
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION DEEPER AND THE ECMWF
SOLUTION FASTER. THIS PRESENTS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE LOCATION
AND DAY OF GREATEST STORM COVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE GFS KEEPS THE
STRONGER INSTABILITY OFF THE TX COAST WITH ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
FORECAST IN THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY. FOR THIS REASON...THE THREAT
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNCLEAR ATTM.
.BROYLES.. 11/07/2007
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