SWOD48
SPC AC 100935
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
COMING WORK WEEK...ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS A VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW/ SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ACCELERATES EAST NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES. IT APPEARS THAT THIS COULD OCCUR AS BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES SUFFICIENT FOR A SUBSTANTIVE INLAND
MOISTURE INFLUX. THIS PROBABLY WILL LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE
IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE APPEARS AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT...MODEL VARIABILITY AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD REMAIN TOO LARGE
TO CONFIDENTLY ASCERTAIN POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK...NOT TO MENTION ATTEMPT A MORE PRECISE DELINEATION OF THE
AREA AFFECTED. UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THE
PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD.
..KERR.. 12/10/2011
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