SWODY2
SPC AC 100536
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CST FRI DEC 09 2011
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT A MORE ZONAL REGIME WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BY SUNDAY...AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH
WITHIN A NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PROGRESSES EAST OF THE NORTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...A DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN A MORE SOUTHERN STREAM
STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AS THIS OCCURS ...SHORT
WAVE RIDGING SHOULD BUILD ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MEXICAN
PLATEAU AND FOUR CORNERS STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ...WHILE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST. THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE COLD SURFACE HIGH IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS IN
RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...BUT SURFACE RIDGING STILL APPEARS
LIKELY TO REMAIN PROMINENT WEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH LOW TO NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL.
...FLORIDA...
THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM A
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE PERIOD. ENHANCEMENT
OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR NORTHERN FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL
AREAS...COUPLED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY SUNDAY
EVENING. SOME OF THIS COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE.
..KERR.. 12/10/2011
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