SWODY1
SPC AC 101627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT DEC 10 2011
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN FL...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED ACROSS ERN/SRN FL OVER THE
PAST 24-HRS WITH 12Z SOUNDINGS EXHIBITING RELATIVELY UNCAPPED
ENVIRONMENT /MUCAPE 1300-1600 J PER KG/. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE ALONG THE E COAST AND SWWD INTO SRN FL IN THE VICINITY OF A
WEAK SFC TROUGH AND AMIDST LOCAL SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MOST LIKELY CONFINED ACROSS
SW/SRN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS WHERE INSTABILITY/CONVERGENCE WILL BE
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER THAN FARTHER N. NO SVR WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.
...BIG BEND REGION AND PARTS OF S TX...
AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE
ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND SOUTH TX...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO WARRANT A RISK OF
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE BIG BEND REGION AND
PARTS OF S TX THIS AFTN/TONIGHT. NO SVR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
..RACY/LEITMAN.. 12/10/2011
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