SWODY1
SPC AC 061951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST MON FEB 06 2012
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON...
A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROUGH IS NOW CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE EN ROUTE TO
THE S CENTRAL TX. ASCENT AND WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR OR ABOVE THE
700 MB PRESSURE LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
...CENTRAL/S FL THIS AFTERNOON...
A MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT ALONG AND S OF A
SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FL. THE MOST VIGOROUS
LIGHTNING-PRODUCING CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR REMAINED JUST OFF THE E
CENTRAL FL COAST...BUT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND S OF THE FRONT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT
IN STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A DECREASE IN THE ALREADY
MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT.
...SW CO THIS AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SW CO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED
MIDLEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND
MINIMAL BUOYANCY SUGGEST THAT LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE UNLIKELY WITH
THIS CONVECTION.
..THOMPSON.. 02/06/2012
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0958 AM CST MON FEB 06 2012/
...FL PENINSULA...
LATE MORNING COMPOSITE SATELLITE/SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA
OF LOWER PRESSURE/INVERTED TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE FL
STRAITS VICINITY. THIS AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE...AND A RESIDUAL
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD INTO THE
NRN PART OF THE FL PENINSULA...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
ISOLD TSTMS TODAY ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. POCKETS OF HEATING
WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS /PW 1.75 INCHES PER 12Z S FL RAOBS/ WILL
YIELD WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION /UPWARDS OF 250-1000 J/KG
MLCAPE/--PERHAPS ENOUGH TO YIELD A STRONG WIND GUST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...NEGATING
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS AND THE INCLUSION OF LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES.
...RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER TX/NRN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EWD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS AN UPSTREAM CLOSED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MEAGER INSTABILITY ON THE
ORDER OF 100-200 J/KG MUCAPE /BASED NEAR 600 MB/ MAY CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTN.
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