SWODY3
SPC AC 090830
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008
VALID 111200Z - 121200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY. MODELS SIMILAR IN
OVERALL PATTERN BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON DETAILS. STRONG IMPULSE NOW
MOVING THROUGH CA WILL DEAMPLIFY AND WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NE INTO
THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER THE OH VALLEY. FARTHER WEST A SRN
STREAM POSITIVE TILT UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NRN MEXICO AND WRN TX. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN OK SWWD INTO THE BIG BEND AREA OF TX EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH ERN TX AND
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS PERIOD.
...ERN TX THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY...
AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR FROM SERN TX INTO A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO
PARTS OF ERN TX ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
NE DURING THE DAY. FARTHER SW POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ATMOSPHERE TO
DESTABILIZE OVER S TX WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL VEER AND WEAKEN FROM S THROUGH SE TX AS LOW LEVEL JET MIGRATES
NEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH EJECTING LEAD IMPULSE.
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO NRN MEXICO...DEEP
FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEAK AND CONVERGENCE ALONG SE ADVANCING
FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY.
MOREOVER...SWLY FLOW ALOFT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
A MODEST INVERSION OVER A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR. THESE FACTORS
RAISE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DURING THE DAY
WHERE THE BEST DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL WILL EXIST. THREAT FOR
STORMS MAY INCREASE OVERNIGHT HOWEVER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS HEIGHTS FALL AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. IF STORMS CAN
REDEVELOP ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...BULK SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO ROTATE WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL LIMITING
FACTORS...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL RISK MAY BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS ONCE MORE CONFIDENCE IS ESTABLISHED.
..DIAL.. 11/09/2008
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