SWODY1
SPC AC 091230
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0630 AM CST SUN NOV 09 2008
VALID 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GREAT BASIN INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
PRIMARY FEATURE REGARDING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL BE INTENSE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...ALONG WITH DEEP ASCENT...
WILL MAINTAIN SEVERAL AREAS OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN EXPANDING EWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES.
FARTHER EAST OVER THE SRN PLAINS...MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
FREE OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AS SLY LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS RESPOND
AND RESULTANT MOISTURE RETURN BEGINS IN EARNEST LATE TONIGHT. UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS AND GOES PW DATA EARLY THIS MORNING INDICATE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO NERN MEXICO EXTENDING INTO THE
SRN TIP OF TX TOWARDS THE BIG BEND REGION. H85 DEW POINTS AOA 8C
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL TX INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE MAJORITY INCREASING AFTER DARK AS H85
SSWLY LLJ INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM AND
INCREASE INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. COMBINATION OF INCREASING
ASCENT AND MOISTENING NEAR BOTTOM OF THIS EML SHOULD SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
09Z...ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX INTO OK. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OUT OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF
INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET AND SPREAD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE INTO
WRN OK/SWRN KS. DESPITE MEAGER MUCAPE AOB 500 J/KG...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FAVOR HAIL GROWTH /SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE/ WITH THE STRONGER
CORES ACROSS THIS REGION LATE TONIGHT GIVEN STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/COLD AIR ALOFT.
..EVANS.. 11/09/2008
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