DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220056
SWODY1
SPC AC 220054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SUN OCT 21 2012

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...FAR W TX AND THE TRANSPECOS...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM AND ADJACENT NRN
MEXICO WILL CONTINUE ENEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING QG ASCENT WILL ALLOW A BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF FAR W TX AND EVENTUALLY THE
TRANSPECOS REGION. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER
CELLS...AND WITH STORM INTENSITY POTENTIALLY AIDED BY MID-LEVEL
SWLYS NEAR 50 KT...SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

...IA/NRN MO/NWRN IL AND VICINITY...
AS A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION...DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED/ELEVATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. WITH
FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES/AMPLE INSTABILITY...MARGINAL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER STORM OR TWO THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 10/22/2012

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