DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080552
SWODY2
SPC AC 080551

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CLOSE OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM AS IT UNDERCUTS UPPER RIDGE AND MOVES
INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SURFACE LOW
OVER THE DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
EWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY. THE LOW
WILL OCCLUDE OVER THE NRN PLAINS WITH TRAILING FRONT ADVANCING SEWD
THROUGH KS...NWRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.

...CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS AREA...

ONLY PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH UPPER 40S-50 F DEWPOINTS WILL
EXIST IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. COOL AIR ALOFT WITH -14 TO -15C AT
500 MB WILL ATTEND THE UPPER LOW...WHICH ALONG WITH DIABATIC WARMING
AND LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. A MODEST EML IS FORECAST ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A CAP IN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONGEST MESOSCALE FORCING
AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN VICINITY
OF DEEPER BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...SEVERAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW CENTER AND INTO PARTS
OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THESE
FEATURES AND DIABATIC WARMING COULD WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE IN WARM SECTOR WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE GREATER. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP IN THE
MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO
MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..DIAL.. 10/08/2010

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