SWODY3
SPC AC 080730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010
VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST SUNDAY WILL BE THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL
REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE POLAR WLYS AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY
ESEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE
AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX WILL DROP SSEWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS INTO OK
AND NWRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
COMPLEX. A STALLED FRONT WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM THE TX PANHANDLE
INTO OK THEN NEWD AS AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SURGE WILL DROP SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH
PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE ADVANCING SWD ALONG WRN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER LOW. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY...
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND DIABATIC WARMING WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT
IN DESTABILIZATION DURING THE DAY...BUT MLCAPE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DUE TO MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. POTENTIAL WILL
EXIST FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH
IMPULSES ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY BE MOST NUMEROUS IN VICINITY OF SEWD ADVANCING BAROCLINIC
ZONE FROM SD INTO PARTS OF NEB. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
...OK AND NRN TX...
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION IN THIS REGION...BUT MODEST LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO
AOB 500 J/KG. STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF STALLED BOUNDARY OR
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE ACCOMPANYING THE SEWD
ADVANCING VORT MAX. VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE TO 30-35 KT AS
VORT MAX DROPS SEWD AND GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...A
FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..DIAL.. 10/08/2010
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