SWOD48
SPC AC 080830
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE ESEWD THROUGH THE
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS DAY 4 BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION DAY 5. HOWEVER...ENSEMBLE SPREADS REGARDING TRACK OF UPPER
LOW CENTER INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
DAY 4...AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOW 60S WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD THROUGH CNTRL/ERN TX AND OK
WARM SECTOR BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION.
A FEW STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF SEWD ADVANCING
COLD FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
UPPER TROUGH. DUE TO THE EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC NATURE OF THE UPPER
LOW...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT
OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION ON MONDAY.
DAY 5...SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH INTO ERN
TX AND THE LOWER MS VALLEY TUESDAY.
WHILE A CATEGORICAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MIGHT BE NEEDED IN LATER
OUTLOOKS OVER A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING EXTENT
OF THREAT TO DELINEATE AN AREA AT THIS TIME.
..DIAL.. 10/08/2010
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