SWODY1
SPC AC 090057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010
VALID 090100Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MOST PROMINENT MID-UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE
AND ACCOMPANYING HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NRN-CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CYCLONE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EWD TOWARD
BLACK HILLS/NRN NEB PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE
NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH CROSSES CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND STRONGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SPREADS OVER LOWER-MID MO VALLEY REGION.
PRIMARY/ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE IS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL SD...FCST TO
DRIFT NWD TOWARD ND/SD BORDER. COLD FRONT SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS HAS BEEN OBSCURED SOMEWHAT BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...BUT
SHOULD MOVE TO CENTRAL NEB...W-CENTRAL KS AND NERN NM BY END OF
PERIOD. WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD FROM SERN SD AND NRN
IA ACROSS E-CENTRAL SD AND SRN MN.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO WRN DAKOTAS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EVIDENT IN ARC NEAR FRONTAL ZONE...FROM
SERN CO ACROSS SWRN-CENTRAL NEB TO SWRN-CENTRAL SD. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IN ELEVATED/WAA CONVEYOR ACROSS
WRN ND AND SSEWD THROUGH WRN SD AND NRN NEB....WITH ISOLATED SVR
HAIL POSSIBLE. STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED WITH APCH OF UPPER TROUGH/LOW...HELPING TO MAINTAIN
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AMIDST WEAK BUT STILL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE.
SVR GUST POTENTIAL...WHILE NON-ZERO...IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER NEXT 2-3 HOURS...AS DIABATIC SFC COOLING DEEPENS
LAYER OF STATIC STABILITY ABOVE GROUND AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES
MLCAPE TO BELOW 500 J/KG IN MOST AREAS. DRY AIR BETWEEN NEAR-SFC
LAYER AND CLOUD BASE STILL MAY SUPPORT A FEW STG AND POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING GUSTS WITH MOST INTENSE OUTFLOWS...PRIMARILY FROM CENTRAL
SD SWD WHERE AIR MASS BECAME MOST WELL-MIXED DIURNALLY. PRESENCE OF
WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZATION/COVERAGE/DURATION OF
ANY SVR POTENTIAL.
..EDWARDS.. 10/09/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment