SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082216
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-082345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SD AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEB TO
NORTHWEST KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 082216Z - 082345Z
DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITHIN A
NARROW CORRIDOR...MAINLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEB INTO
SOUTHERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST KS...WITH
SOME DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL.
AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CYCLONICALLY PIVOT OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A FAST MOVING
/45-50 KT/ QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
STEADILY ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
NEB INTO SOUTHERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE...IS SEMI-FOCUSED
ALONG/WEST OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
MOISTURE/TOTAL BUOYANCY IS LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES/HIGH DCAPE IN
TANDEM WITH STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE CONTINUANCE OF A SEMI-ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN NEB/INTO
SOUTHERN SD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
COULD ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY AROUND 01Z-02Z AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/DECOUPLES.
..GUYER.. 10/08/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 39820025 39510109 40800225 44460125 43839907 39820025
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