SWODY2
SPC AC 050449
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 PM CDT THU NOV 04 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SPLIT UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOW JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS...IS PROGGED TO
BEGIN LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN STATES SATURDAY...BUT SURFACE
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROMINENT FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST
EAST NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS WILL
PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RETURN FLOW OFF THE SLOWLY MODIFYING
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AND DRY...STABLE CONDITIONS
SHOULD RESULT IN NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EAST OF THE
ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A WEAKENING UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AHEAD OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH ADVANCING TOWARD THE PACIFIC
COAST. CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY STILL EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS
CONCERNING THIS FEATURE...AND THERE ARE AT LEAST SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY
NEGLIGIBLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES BETWEEN SAN
FRANSISCO BAY AND THE LOS ANGELES BASIN. HOWEVER...WITH MOST MODELS
SUGGESTING A SOMEWHAT MODEST MID-LEVEL COLD CORE /500 MB TEMPS
AROUND -18 TO -20C/...PROBABILITIES DO NOT SEEM LIKELY TO MEET THE
10 PERCENT MINIMUM THRESHOLD REQUIRED FOR A CATEGORICAL GENERAL
THUNDER OUTLOOK AT THE PRESENT TIME.
..KERR.. 11/05/2010
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