SWOD48
SPC AC 050853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI NOV 05 2010
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES DURING THIS
PERIOD...PERHAPS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY AGAIN...A
BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF
AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS WITHIN A STRONG BELT OF
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE MID LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
U.S...WHICH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL CERTAINLY EXISTS FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE SUPPORTIVE
OF A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK...WITH AT LEAST THE
SECOND/SOUTHERN SYSTEM...IF NOT THE LEAD/NORTHERN SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES
CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS IS RATHER LARGE AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD...AND GROWS CONSIDERABLY...RESULTING IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE THE MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..KERR.. 11/05/2010
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