DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101955
SWODY1
SPC AC 101953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN TX INTO PARTS OF THE S CNTRL HIGH PLAINS....

...SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...
IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW/TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE IS
CONFINING SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION
MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THUS...AS THE INITIAL
STRONGER FORCING LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IN THE
EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED TO A
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG A DRY LINE FROM PARTS OF NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO THE VICINITY OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INTO THE EVENING HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH...MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT BETWEEN THE POLAR AND SUBTROPICAL JET AXES ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING STORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF A MOISTENING LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH
LITTLE...IF ANY...MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY OCCUR...AS SURFACE DEW
POINTS CLIMB THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S...BOUNDARY LAYER BASED CAPE
MAY EXCEED 1000 J/KG...SUPPORTING STRONG UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE CORE OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
DEVELOP NORTH OF THE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPHS NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE HILL COUNTRY ARE SILL
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SIZABLE...ENHANCING THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

THEREAFTER...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR MORE CONGEALING STORM
CLUSTERS COULD MAINTAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY
...WHILE NEW STORMS CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
...TOWARD THE HILL COUNTRY.

..KERR/KIS.. 11/10/2008

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