SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101859
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2362
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN CO...SWRN KS...OK PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 101859Z - 102030Z
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY MAY
SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR ISOLATED
HAIL/BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED AREAL EXTENT WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE.
18Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED SYNOPTIC LOW OVER THE RATON
MESA WITH AN E/W-ORIENTED WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN KS AND A DRYLINE
ARCING SEWD ACROSS THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS
RECENTLY COMMENCED INVOF THE SYNOPTIC CYCLONE AND EJECTING MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE ROTATING NEWD /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/. FARTHER EAST...A
VERY NARROW SLOT OF HEATING BETWEEN DRYLINE AND STRATUS DECK SHOULD
RESULT IN MLCAPES REACHING 500 J/KG BY 21Z. ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG DRY LINE OR ACTIVITY SPREADING EWD FROM THE RATON
MESA MAY INTERACT WITH THIS INSTABILITY AXIS AND LEND TO A MORE
ROBUST CONVECTIVE THREAT. ALTHOUGH GRENADA CO PROFILER STILL
INDICATES SOME BACKING OF FLOW WITHIN THE 2-4 KM LAYER...HODOGRAPHS
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS FARTHER SE. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT IN THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER...AMBIENT SURFACE VORTICITY
AND 0-3 KM CAPE INCREASING TO AOA 100 J/KG WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AN
ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO.
..GRAMS.. 11/10/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36990273 36990301 37250291 37730240 37840171 37910064
37660000 36950005 36590027 36430071 36670134 36940211
36980254 36990273
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