SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110015
TXZ000-110145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2364
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CST MON NOV 10 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX...SWRN OK.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 929...
VALID 110015Z - 110145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 929 CONTINUES.
REMAINDER WW SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WILL PERSIST OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN TX THROUGH REMAINDER EVENING.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL/REPLACEMENT WW IS LIKELY WHICH SHOULD COVER
SRN/ERN PORTIONS EXISTING WW ALONG WITH SOME AREAS FARTHER W.
23Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWED CYCLONE OVER SERN KS..WITH OCCLUDED
FRONT SEWD ACROSS EXTREME NERN TX PANHANDLE. DIFFUSE/POST-DRYLINE
COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM EXTREME E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE SSWWD
TOWARD MAF AREA. BLENDED WARM FRONT/DRYLINE EXTENDED SE FROM ERN
PANHANDLE TO INTERSECTION POINT BETWEEN RPH-DYS...WITH DRYLINE SWWD
ACROSS COLEMAN AND VAL VERDE COUNTIES TX. WARM FRONT BECAME
QUASISTATIONARY SEWD FROM DRYLINE INTERSECTION AND ASSUMED
WELL-DEFINED DOUBLE STRUCTURE. NRN STATIONARY FRONTAL BRANCH WAS
ANALYZED FROM STEPHENS COUNTY SEWD ACROSS SEP AREA...MCLENNAN
COUNTY...TO NEAR BPT. SRN BRANCH OF STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM
NEAR SEP SSEWD BETWEEN AUS-SAT...THEN SEWD ACROSS VCT AREA. PRIND
EACH BRANCH OF LATTER FRONT WILL AT MOST DRIFT VERY SLOWLY NEWD.
MEANWHILE COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH UP TO DRYLINE/WARM FRONT FROM N-S.
THIS PROCESS EFFECTIVELY WILL SHUNT FAVORABLE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
SEWD WITH TIME...WHILE BEGINNING TO FORCE LINEAR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AS BLENDED BOUNDARY INTERACTS WITH THAT PORTION OF SFC
MOIST SECTOR S OF SRN STATIONARY FRONTAL BRANCH.
MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF BACKED WINDS...ENLARGED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND NEARLY SFC-BASED BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN ALONG SRN BRANCH
STATIONARY FRONT...WITH PARCELS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ELEVATED
NEWD TO NRN BRANCH. 0-1 KM SRH WILL REMAIN IN 200-400 J/KG RANGE
ALONG AND E OF SRN BRANCH. ANY RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTION
INTERACTING WITH SRN BRANCH FRONT WILL POSE LARGEST TORNADO
PROBABILITIES...BUT THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL ON CONVECTIVE MODE.
ACTIVITY N OF NRN BRANCH STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE ELEVATED WITH MAIN
THREAT BEING HAIL...AMIDST STRENGTHENING 45-55 KT LLJ. PUREST WARM
SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 500-1000 J/KG...ONLY
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AS THETAE ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OFFSETS STABILIZING EFFECTS OF DIABATIC SFC COOLING.
..EDWARDS.. 11/11/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 30330009 31909925 32969732 32499675 31089606 29849726
30079979 30330009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment