SWOD48
SPC AC 100915
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 AM CST MON NOV 10 2008
VALID 131200Z - 181200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 4...
SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS NE TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC. WEAK CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST EARLY
THURSDAY NEAR THE NC COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD AND POSSIBLY INTO
ERN NC FROM THE GULF STREAM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS INLAND EXTENT OF
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED BY RAPID EJECTION OF UPPER TROUGH
WHICH WILL VEER THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL NC WHERE STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS RETURNING MOIST AXIS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP INLAND FOR A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.
BEYOND DAY 4...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
ERN TWO THIRDS OF THE U.S. WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN OFFSHORE AND ACROSS FL REMOVED FROM THE STRONGER FORCING AND
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW
ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 6 WHEN COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
..DIAL.. 11/10/2008
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