DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 120602
SWODY2
SPC AC 120600

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NERN CO...NWRN
KS...AND NEB...

..SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER ERN CANADA AND
INTO THE NERN CONUS...WHILE A SECOND TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING THE PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...AS RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS IS SHUNTED EWD WITH TIME.

AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...A SUB-1000 MB LOW IS FORECAST INVOF WRN KS...WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND INTO FAR W TX.

..PARTS NERN CO/NWRN KS/SRN NEB...
THUNDERSTORMS -- DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION/WEAKENING NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET -- SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
ERN KS AND INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE
DAY.

MEANWHILE...THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SHIFT WWD
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION...AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

DESPITE THE DEVELOPING LOW AND ASSOCIATED SLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...MOISTURE RETURN IS FORECAST TO BE MODEST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD YIELD A PERSISTENT CAP...AND THUS ATTM IT APPEARS THAT WARM
SECTOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED. WILL MAINTAIN
5%/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...AS INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS/SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONVECTION INITIATE.

MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN KS AND INTO NEB
OVERNIGHT...AS 60 KT SLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
HAIL WITH STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.GOSS.. 10/12/2007

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