SWODY3
SPC AC 120729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS...
..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY-STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NRN KS/SRN
NEB...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS KS/OK/TX.
..CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OK...
DAY 3 IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO DAY 2...IN THAT
WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION SHOULD STAY LARGELY-SUPPRESSED BY MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/CAPPING...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD/ELEVATED STORMS
AND A LIMITED HAIL THREAT OCCUR WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME N OF
WARM FRONT.
POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAY 3...AS
THE ENTRANCE-REGION OF THE UPPER JET SPREADS ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS KS/NEB. RESULTING UVV MAY POSSIBLY WEAKEN THE CAP TO A
GREATER DEGREE THAN ON DAY 2 INVOF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH 50 KT SWLYS AT MID LEVELS SPREADING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR...SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION WITHIN ANY UPDRAFTS WHICH DID
DEVELOP. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE PROBABILITY
FROM SRN NEB/THE MID MO VALLEY SWD INTO NRN OK.
.GOSS.. 10/12/2007
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