SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130306
KSZ000-NEZ000-130500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND NRN KS INTO SERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 130306Z - 130500Z
ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH 06Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
MOST INTENSE CELLS.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE WRN OK PNHDL WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ARCING NEWD TO N OF GCK/DDC AND THEN MORE EWD
TO NEAR ICT AND CNU. REGIONAL PROFILERS SHOW THAT SLY LLJ HAS
INCREASED TO 40-45 KT FROM WRN PARTS OF TX/OK INTO N-CNTRL
KS...EFFECTIVELY ENHANCING MOISTURE/THERMAL ADVECTION TO THE N OF
WARM FRONT WITH MUCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FOR PARCELS ORIGINATING
FROM 780-750 MB.
A TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE WARM FRONT NE OF GCK WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL INTO NERN KS. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WAA ALONG INTENSIFYING LLJ AND ABOVE NEAR-SURFACE FRONTAL
INVERSION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY TONIGHT ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA. THE MODEST CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH
35-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.
.MEAD.. 10/13/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
38339989 38860001 39699922 39949839 40359756 40419680
40159582 39669567 39129554 38469576 38199716 38259903
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