SWODY1
SPC AC 130037
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..CNTRL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...
LARGE SCALE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING BETWEEN COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER
CYCLONE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG TROUGH ADVANCING EAST
FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF
SLOPED/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER THE
GREAT PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. RESULTING
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX IS FORECAST TO OCCUR COINCIDENT
WITH DYNAMIC/ADIABATIC COOLING ALOFT SO THAT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHIN THE ZONE OF
STRONGEST ASCENT. SUBSEQUENT TSTM/MCS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND EXPAND PRIMARILY ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER AREA...AND
THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS NERN KS/WRN IA/NWRN MO THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ROOTED WITHIN THE 800-700MB
LAYER WHERE PARCELS...ORIGINATING WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...REACH AN LFC WELL REMOVED FROM NEAR SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. SHEAR AND FORCING SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR A FEW
ROBUST ROTATING UPDRAFTS DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE LAYER AND
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A COUPLE TO A FEW HAIL EVENTS THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT
INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS/SLGT RISK AT THIS TIME.
.CARBIN.. 10/13/2007
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