DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 121945
SWODY1
SPC AC 121942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER SERN CO WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SSWWD THROUGH THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SERN NM. THIS DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STATIONARY...DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS REMAINING UPSTREAM OVER THE SW
STATES AS UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SW
THROUGH TONIGHT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED THE COMBINATION OF
SURFACE HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS HAS WEAKENED INHIBITION FOR SURFACE BASED CU
FORMATION ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM...AS INDICATED
BY VISIBLE IMAGERY. DESPITE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...SLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE INFLUX TO SUPPORT INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND EVENTUAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MUCAPE VALUES ALREADY UP
TO 2000 J/KG COMBINED WITH WLY MID LEVEL WINDS/DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASING ATTENDANT TO JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS NM ATTM...A
SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PART OF FAR ERN NM INTO W TX.
THIS SCENARIO FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION IS SUPPORTED
BY 18Z RUC WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THREAT TO DEVELOP NWD INTO SWRN
KS BY 13/03Z FOR A MORE CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SUGGEST A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

..CENTRAL PLAINS...
BULK OF ONGOING WAA TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL KS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ELEVATED NORTH OF ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED
FROM SERN KS TO NEAR ICT AND THEN NWWD INTO NWRN KS. WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS NERN CO...NRN KS/SRN NEB AND
EVENTUALLY INTO NWRN MO/SWRN IA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
1000-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE AND CLOUD LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST TSTMS.

.PETERS.. 10/12/2007

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