SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121927
TXZ000-NMZ000-122030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2067
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ECNTRL NM...NWRN TX
CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE
VALID 121927Z - 122030Z
SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS ERN NM INTO THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS...MAINLY JUST WEST OF ERODED EARLY MORNING STRATUS
DECK. AS A RESULT...MID-UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES HAVE ALL BUT REMOVED
INHIBITION ALONG A NARROW AXIS NEAR THE DRY LINE. THIS IS EVIDENT
BY RECENT BOUNDARY LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT/EXPANSION. ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...IN EXCESS OF 9 C/KM...AND MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500
J/KG...SUGGEST ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AS DID DEEP CONVECTION THE LAST
FEW AFTERNOONS. WILL UPDATE THE 20Z OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS
LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.
.DARROW.. 10/12/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
33700368 34240268 34790238 35890232 35660116 34050166
33070297
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