SWODY1
SPC AC 021221
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT FRI NOV 02 2007
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT MOST OF THE CONUS TODAY
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE W AND A TROUGH AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN
CAROLINAS...WHERE A WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE NOEL AS IT PASSES TO THE E AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES...WITH ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A LAKE
INDUCED LIGHTNING STRIKE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. A REINFORCING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...SPREADING COOL AND DRY AIR
SWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS STATES.
..ERN CAROLINAS...
MOIST ELY FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER WILL INCREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS NOEL MOVES NNEWD. MEANWHILE...MID LEVEL
COOLING WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD AND WILL RESULT IN
WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING MAINLY IN THE 800-650 MB LAYER.
NAM...NAMKF AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 200-400 J/KG MUCAPE
DEVELOPING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NC AND PERHAPS FAR NERN SC.
THESE MODELS PRODUCE PRECIPITATION AS UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH
THE MODEST ELEVATED MOIST PLUME. THE GFS MODEL...HOWEVER...IS LESS
BULLISH WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHICH IS ALSO A
REASONABLE SOLUTION GIVEN SOME SUBSIDENCE AROUND NOEL. THE END
RESULT IS LOW THUNDER PROBABILITIES. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK
EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH VERY SMALL HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY
RELATIVELY SUSTAINED STORM CELLS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE EVENING.
.JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 11/02/2007
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