DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011247
SWODY1
SPC AC 011244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...OH VALLEY...
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST STATES TODAY...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
VORT LOBE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MN INTO NORTHERN IA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF
FEATURE OVER WI AND UPPER MI. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER LOWER MI/IND/IL AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
REGION. STRONG HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F WILL YIELD
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS...RATHER
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP TO ORGANIZE STORMS
WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OVER 35 KNOTS. CLUSTERS OF INTENSE
STORMS WILL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF IND/OH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE FOCUSED DAMAGING WIND
EVENT IF STORM CLUSTERS COALESCE INTO A LARGER MCS.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A 60+ KNOT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL
ROTATE FROM ID/WESTERN MT INTO ALBERTA. THIS WILL HELP TO INDUCE A
STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF
MT/ND. MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER DARK OVER EASTERN MT...SPREADING INTO
WESTERN ND. STRONGER STORMS IN THIS REGION COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL.

...SOUTHEAST...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN TODAY
ALONG A REMNANT MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS FROM LA/AR INTO THE CAROLINAS.
A FEW WET MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING.

..HART/SMITH.. 08/01/2008

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