SWOD48
SPC AC 010853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2008
VALID 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
LARGE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE MIDWEST
STATES WILL BE SUPPRESSED WWD INTO THE WRN U.S. WITH TIME...AS
CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH/LOW MOVES SSEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE EVOLUTION
OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE THROUGH DAYS 7-8...THOUGH THEY
DIFFER MORE SUBSTANTIALLY -- BEGINNING ROUGHLY DAY 6 -- IN PLACEMENT
OF THE SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF
THE CONUS.
IN THE MEAN TIME...SMALL-SCALE FEATURES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST -- THROUGH FAST WLY FLOW ON THE NRN SIDE
OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE -- WILL SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION DAYS 4-5.
THE PRIMARY THREAT DAY 4 /MON. AUG. 4/ IS FORECAST FROM THE UPPER MS
VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THIS REGION.
THE THREAT DAY 5 /TUE. AUG. 5/ SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY SWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION...AS THE CANADIAN TROUGH BEGINS MOVING SWD. SEVERAL
EPISODES OF POTENTIALLY-SEVERE STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL -- ARE FORECAST IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME FRAME.
WHILE ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY EXIST INVOF THE SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE
CONUS...MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY PRECLUDE THE
ISSUANCE OF ANY OUTLOOK AREAS BEYOND DAY 5.
..GOSS.. 08/01/2008
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