DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241255
SWODY1
SPC AC 241253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE...WEAK SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN AND
CNTRL U.S. THROUGH TUE...UPSTREAM FROM BROAD UPR TROUGH/LOW OVER ERN
CANADA...THE GRT LKS AND THE NERN STATES. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
OVER WY/CO WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS LATER TODAY AND INTO
ERN NEB/CNTRL KS BY EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING E IN CONFLUENT FLOW OVER
THE MID MS VLY EARLY TUE.

AT LWR LVLS...EXPANSIVE COOL SFC HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER SRN IND
SHOULD SHIFT E TO VA BY EVE AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC CST EARLY TUE.
IN RESPONSE...EXPECT SW TO WSWLY LWR TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO STRENGTHEN
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH LATER TODAY INTO TUE...FROM THE
SRN/CNTRL PLNS INTO THE OZARKS AND MID MS VLY.

THE WY/CO SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN ALONG BAND OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL FLOW...LIKELY
WILL FOSTER SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY TUE ALONG
AND NE OF WARM FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO...MID MS...AND LWR OH
VLYS. THIS ACTIVITY COULD YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND
POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

...LWR MO VLY INTO MID MS/LWR OH VLYS LATE TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
SUBSTANTIAL EML SPREADING E IN CONFLUENT WNWLY FLOW OVER THE CNTRL
PLNS SHOULD CAP WARM FRONT TO SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. SOME ELEVATED STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...PERSIST FOR
AWHILE THIS MORNING OVER NRN/ERN AR...WELL NE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY.
THE 12Z LZK RAOB SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLD
SVR HAIL DURING THEIR EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.

LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...APPROACH OF WY/CO UPR IMPULSE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT A NEW ROUND OF SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY ELEVATED STORMS ALONG
AND NE OF THE FRONT FROM FAR NE KS E/SE INTO NRN AND CNTRL MO. THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL GROW INTO A SMALL E/SE-MOVING CLUSTER OR TWO AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ...AND AS UPR
IMPULSE CONTINUES EWD.

WITH PW VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES...COMBINATION OF
DEEP EML AND MODERATE...DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW
MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND...ESPECIALLY IN
MO...POSSIBLY LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 09/24/2012

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