DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 241945
SWODY1
SPC AC 241942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

--- UPDATES ---
ONLY A FEW MINOR/PERIPHERAL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO GEN TSTM LINES
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.
MRGL/OVERNIGHT HAIL POTENTIAL STILL APPEARS REASONABLE OVER LOWER
MO/MID MS VALLEYS WHERE ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT
REGIME WILL JUXTAPOSE WITH SRN RIM OF FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR.

..EDWARDS.. 09/24/2012

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012/

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FEATURE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED WIND SPEED
MAXIMA WILL PIVOT CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MEAN TROUGH BUT LITTLE
SENSIBLE WEATHER BESIDES INCREASED CLOUDINESS IS ANTICIPATED.
FARTHER W...A CLOSED LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE ORE/NV/ID
BORDER INTERSECTION WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SEWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN.

AT THE SFC...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OH
VALLEY WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY EWD WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
CNTRL PLAINS/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS A WEAK
BOUNDARY EXTENDING EWD FROM A WEAK SFC LOW IN SWRN KS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ERN CONUS HIGH AND LEE TROUGH WILL FAVOR
ENHANCED SLY WINDS...WHICH WILL ACT TO SHARPEN THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE
IT NWD/NEWD AS A WARM FRONT. SCANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS
MOST OF THE COUNTRY WITH 60 DEG DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE
GULF COAST AND CNTRL/S TX.

...NRN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...
THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM FAR NERN KS SEWD
ACROSS WRN MO AND INTO N-CNTRL AR AT 06Z TUESDAY. ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
SHOULD PROMOTE AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTANT FROM A DEEP EML AND
MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50 KTS PER NAM
GUIDANCE/ WILL SUPPORT A LOW SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY. GIVEN THE
STABLE/DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...THE SEVERE WIND
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 PERCENT.

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NRN ROCKIES...
INCREASED MOISTURE...OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...AND LARGE-SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ERN NV...BUT THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL PROHIBIT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND
THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WINDS IS BELOW 5 PERCENT.

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.