DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 240723
SWODY3
SPC AC 240721

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...SYNOPSIS...
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD...THE NRN PORTION OF A SURFACE
COLD FRONT -- STRETCHING INITIALLY FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AREA
WSWWD INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION -- WILL PROGRESS EWD WITH
TIME. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD -- BUT SHOULD
LINGER ACROSS THE OH/MID MS/LOWER MO VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INVOF THIS
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

ELSEWHERE...WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGHING/CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE WEST...RESULTING IN ANOTHER DAY OF PRIMARILY DIURNAL
CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.

...OH/PA AND VICINITY...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS OF
PA AND WV...INVOF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS
PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER APPEARS LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON -- THUS HINDERING APPRECIABLE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH A BELT OF STRONGER WLYS AT
MID LEVELS POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW SEMI-ORGANIZED STORMS OR STORM
CLUSTERS...POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS SUPPORTS
INTRODUCTION OF A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THIS REGION.

...SRN KS/NWRN OK INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PNHDLS...
ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL
ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL...AGAIN TEMPERING SEVERE
POTENTIAL. STILL...PRESENCE OF THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE WEAK
SURFACE FRONT AND MODEST VEERING/SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

..GOSS.. 09/24/2012

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