DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 240900
SWOD48
SPC AC 240859

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON SEP 24 2012

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS IN DECENT LARGE-SCALE AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD...THOUGH SMALLER-SCALE DIFFERENCES -- PARTICULARLY IN THE
WEAKER SRN STREAM OVER THE SRN U.S. -- ARE EVIDENT EVEN EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.

HAVING SAID THAT...MODELS AGREE THAT THE STRONGER/PROGRESSING
PORTION OF THE ERN U.S. SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE
WWD-TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE CAROLINAS WWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEAKENS WITH TIME.

ASIDE FROM AN UPPER LOW -- PROGGED BY BOTH MODELS TO CUT OFF OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S./SOUTHEAST CANADA BEGINNING ROUGHLY DAY 6 /SAT.
9-29/...THE FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. SHOULD
REMAIN WEAK...WITH A GENERALLY DIFFUSE UPPER PATTERN FORECAST. THE
LACK OF ANY STRONGER/PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS APPARENT ATTM SUGGESTS
LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD/SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE EVENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/24/2012

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