DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 240440
SWODY1
SPC AC 240438

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF ERN CANADA AND INTO
THE NERN STATES...WITH RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CONUS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE AS IT TRAVELS SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE DAY AND
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY TUE MORNING.

A STRONG LEAD TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY...WITH
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC BY 00Z. SLY
FLOW WILL THUS INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHERE A PLUME OF MID TO
UPPER 50S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST WITH AXIS FROM THE
SABINE RIVER NWD INTO ERN KS/WRN MO AT 00Z.

ALTHOUGH THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL ACROSS THE PLAINS...A
DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED BY SEVERAL MODELS...AFFECTING ERN NEB/KS
LATE IN THE DAY AND CONTINUING EWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL HELP FOCUS LIFT FOR STORMS OVER THIS REGION...WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING.

...NRN MO...CNTRL/SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY...
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY...UNTIL THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ARRIVES...AND LIFT INCREASES ON
THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATED ACROSS FAR NERN KS/NWRN MO AFTER 00Z...WITH STORMS GROWING
UPSCALE AND TRAVELING EWD INTO IL AND IND OVERNIGHT. FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MOVE STORMS ALONG AT 30-40 KT...WITH EFFECTIVE
SHEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STORM LONGEVITY.

ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE COOL AND RELATIVELY STABLE...IT
WILL BE COMPRISED OF DRY AIR AND MAY AID IN EVAPORATION/COLD POOL
PRODUCTION. LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL BE STEEP AND DOWNDRAFTS MAY
CONTAIN HAIL. THUS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR
WITH ANY ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO
OCCUR.

..JEWELL.. 09/24/2012

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