SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180019
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO / FAR SWRN KS / OK PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 180019Z - 180115Z
SEVERE WIND GUST THREAT MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS SERN CO AND PERHAPS AS FAR SE AS THE OK PANHANDLE AND EXTREME
SWRN KS. IF SHORT TERM TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE REGARDING
UPSCALE GROWTH...A SMALL WW MAY ADDRESS THIS THREAT. POSSIBILITY OF
A WW 50 PERCENT.
SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE N SIDE OF A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS IS PROVIDING A MOIST/UNSTABLE FETCH OF HIGHER THETA-E INTO
THE REGION. STRONGLY VEERING SHEAR PROFILES /4 KM AGL WINDS 25 KTS
PER KPUX/ WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE DEGREE OF UPSCALE GROWTH THAT THE CURRENT LINEAR STORM
CLUSTER MAY ENACT OVER THE NEXT HOUR. IF THIS OCCURS...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DESPITE SOME DIURNAL COOLING...MAY CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE.
..SMITH.. 08/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36710254 37060324 38150446 38470453 38750327 38460226
37780168 36870175 36710254
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