SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171949
MIZ000-172045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UPPER MI...FAR NRN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171949Z - 172045Z
A SMALL THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND
FAR NRN LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG A
BOUNDARY REPRESENTING THE MERGED EFFECTS OF PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE
AND A LAKE BREEZE GENERATED OFF OF THE NRN EXTENT OF LAKE MI. ASCENT
IS BEING AUGMENTED BY A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX CURRENTLY CROSSING LAKE
SUPERIOR. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION WILL ONLY BE
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG STORMS GIVEN MLCAPE VALUES AROUND
500 J/KG. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 25 TO 35 KT
DRIVEN BY A ZONE OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW INVOF THE VORT MAX COULD
RESULT IN OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES YIELDING A
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS. WHILE AN ISOLATED...MARGINAL
SVR STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT...THE SPATIOTEMPORAL THREAT
WILL BE VERY MINIMAL...AND A WW IS NOT NEEDED.
..COHEN.. 08/17/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...
LAT...LON 46038372 45738422 45708531 45978607 46278557 46458456
46398407 46038372
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