SWODY3
SPC AC 170727
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT WED AUG 17 2011
VALID 191200Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S....
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THIS
PERIOD...AS WEAK TROUGHS REMAIN OVER BOTH THE WRN AND ERN
COASTS...WITH A RIDGE IN BETWEEN -- CENTERED OVER THE S CENTRAL AND
SWRN CONUS.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE N
CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST. AS THE FRONT MOVES SWD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- REINFORCING THE PRIOR BAROCLINIC ZONE
ACROSS THIS AREA...THIS REGION SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE
CONCENTRATED CONVECTIVE/SEVERE WEATHER THIS PERIOD.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO KS/NEB...
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION -- AND LIMITED SEVERE THREAT --
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS...GREATEST THREAT SEEMS LIKELY TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADING INTO
LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING.
ACROSS THIS AREA...ELY UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE KS
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT AS
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION MAXIMIZES. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/LONGEVITY
WILL BE AIDED BY 30 TO 40 KT NWLYS AT MID LEVELS...OVERRIDING THE
LOW-LEVEL SELYS TO PROVIDE FAVORABLY SHEARED FLOW WITH HEIGHT.
AS STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING...SEWD MOVEMENT OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN APPEARS LIKELY AS A LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A SEWD SPREAD OF THE WIND/HAIL THREAT INTO KS AND
VICINITY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..GOSS.. 08/17/2011
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