SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172000
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-172200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN SD...WRN NEB...NE CO AND FAR NW KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172000Z - 172200Z
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT THAT
COULD REQUIRE A WW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION REMAINS UNCLEAR...AND
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN SUPPORT
OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING NEAR THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS MIXED LAYER CAPE IS NOW IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG...IN THE
PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. CONSIDERABLE INHIBITION
FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS LINGERS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE IN THE
PROCESS OF WEAKENING ALONG AN AXIS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING EAST
OF SIDNEY NEB NORTHWARD THROUGH AREAS NEAR/WEST OF PHILIP SD. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL DATA ARE CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
INITIATION OF SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION
ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA DURING THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME. ONCE STORMS
FORM...MODESTLY STRONG AND SHEARED WEST NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW
WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..KERR.. 08/17/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 39810334 41040365 42950310 43860262 44680247 45320201
45430105 44030020 43610030 42720050 39780134 39390265
39810334
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