SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052051
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-052245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2349
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CST WED NOV 05 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND...N CNTRL SD...ERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA/NERN
NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052051Z - 052245Z
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL
PERSIST FROM CNTRL SD NEWD INTO SERN ND AND WRN MN. FARTHER
S...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE QUITE ISOLATED WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL.
AT 20Z A SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED W OF HON WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWD INTO NERN NEB. TOWERING CU WERE NOTED ACROSS ERN NEB
ALONG THE FRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 70S.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED FARTHER N INTO ERN SD WHERE MORE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINED WITH LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AS
OF 20Z EXCEPT N OF THE WARM FRONT. THERE...INCREASING SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WAS ADVECTING AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS NWWD ATOP A
COOLER AIR MASS RESULTING IN A RASH OF ELEVATED CONVECTION.
GIVEN VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED LIFT...AS WELL
AS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A FEW LONGER LIVED CORES...STORMS
N OF THE WARM FRONT MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.
FARTHER S INTO THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP
GIVEN CAPPING AS WELL AS MEAGER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH
DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE MID 50S F. AREA TAMDAR SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS
THE 18Z OAX SOUNDING INDICATED SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING EVEN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S F. NONETHELESS...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT LOW
LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
..JEWELL.. 11/05/2008
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45909635 45549625 44399572 43319513 42399491 41689542
41399591 41249677 41249706 41429699 41939693 42699713
43369736 43889769 44299812 44619871 44369948 44260014
44290066 44560105 44940109 45490069 46519984 47049852
47079717 46989674 46569629 45909635
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment