SWOD48
SPC AC 050941
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0341 AM CST WED NOV 05 2008
VALID 081200Z - 131200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR RISK AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A TREND TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST PRIOR TO THE POLAR TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE
EASTERN STATES STILL APPEARS LOW. BUT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A QUICK
AND SUBSTANTIVE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SOME RUNS FORECAST THIS COINCIDENT WITH
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING THE
SOUTHERN STREAM DEVELOPMENTS REMAINS CONSIDERABLE THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
..KERR.. 11/05/2008
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