SWODY2
SPC AC 240555
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011
VALID 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS ON
TUESDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY A SPLITTING/AMPLIFYING POSITIVE TILT UPPER
TROUGH SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...WHILE A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDWEST/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND OZARKS VICINITY...AND SERVES AS THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE PERIOD.
ADDITIONALLY...ON A LIMITED COVERAGE/PROBABILITY BASIS...SOME TSTMS
MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS
VICINITY AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT
BASIN.
...OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE REGION
INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...WITH
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTING THAT ONE OR MORE LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES/SPEED MAXIMA ARE LIKELY TO AT LEAST GRAZE THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A STRONG AND PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH A MARGINALLY
MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN EAST-SOUTHEAST ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S F TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN A NEAR-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE OZARKS/MIDDLE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND MIDWEST.
IN SPITE OF A RELATIVE/GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE...THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN AND OVERALL MODEST CONTENT SUGGEST THAT THE WARM
SECTOR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THAT
SAID...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE TOWARD
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK NEAR THE FRONT AS DPVA/WARM ADVECTION
INCREASE. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LIMITED BY MARGINAL MOISTURE AND WEAK BUOYANCY /500 J PER KG MLCAPE
OR LESS/...ALONG WITH EXPECTATIONS FOR A POST-SUNSET CONVECTIVE
PEAK...A FEW STRONGER/PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
SOME HAIL AND/OR WIND MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
..GUYER.. 10/24/2011
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