SWOD48
SPC AC 240858
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT MON OCT 24 2011
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REAMPLIFY THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH LONGWAVE TROUGHING
PREVALENT EAST OF THE ROCKIES. FOR DAY 4/THURSDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/GULF COAST REGION TO TX COAST
VICINITY. ON DAY 5/FRIDAY...THE EASTERN STATES TROUGH IS LIKELY TO
PHASE/AMPLIFY IN EARNEST...ALTHOUGH APPRECIABLE SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS/MOISTENING INLAND SEEMS UNLIKELY.
NONETHELESS...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES. WHILE SOME
STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EITHER DAY 4 OR
5...SEEMINGLY LIMITED POTENTIAL PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF ANY 30
PERCENT EQUIVALENT SEVERE RISK AREAS FOR EITHER DAY.
THEREAFTER...THE EXPECTED PREVALENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOL/STABLE CONDITIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP THE DEEP
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL VERY LOW THIS WEEKEND.
..GUYER.. 10/24/2011
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