SWODY1
SPC AC 240426
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2011
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENSIVE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ERN
STATES...EJECTING INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM IND/OH EWD INTO NY/PA DURING
THE AFTERNOON...WITH A STRONG WIND SHIFT AND AREAS OF RAIN AND
STORMS.
TO THE W...A WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL COMMENCE AS THE ERN TROUGH
EXITS THE REGION AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE. OVERNIGHT...A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS AS A BROAD AND
LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SINKS SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES AND
PLAINS...INDUCING A STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO WI.
...OH VALLEY EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM
SERN LOWER MI INTO NWRN OH AND INDIANA. FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT AND
A PLUME OF LOWER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS. RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST IN
THE 700-500 MB LAYER WITH COOL DOWNDRAFTS. WITH MEAN FLOW OF 30-40
KT IN SAID LAYER...A FEW SHOWERS MAY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
...SERN MN...ERN IA...WI INTO LOWER MI LATE...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...A
STRONG SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION
NEAR AND N OF A WARM FRONT NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER INTO SRN WI/NRN IL
BETWEEN 09-12Z. LAPSE RATES THROUGH ABOUT 700 MB WILL BE POOR...BUT
WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY ALOFT. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS PRODUCING
QPF ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING LITTLE CAPE
BASED NEAR 700 MB. THUS...A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
PRESENT WITHIN A LARGER AREA OF RAIN BY TUE MORNING...BUT COVERAGE
MAY BE QUITE ISOLATED.
..JEWELL/HURLBUT.. 10/24/2011
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