DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 100447
SWODY1
SPC AC 100445

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
TRACK EWD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. BETWEEN THIS FEATURE
AND A W/E-ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...MODERATE/GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW WILL COVER THE SERN STATES.
FARTHER WEST...A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM TX NWWD INTO THE CNTRL GREAT
BASIN...WHILE A CLOSED LOW TRACKS SSEWD OFF THE CA COAST BEFORE
EVENTUALLY NEARING THE COASTLINE LATE TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HIGH...THE ERN SEGMENT
OF A FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WRN SEGMENT OF THE SAME
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SAG SWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN STATES AND SRN
PLAINS DURING THE DAY BEFORE ADVANCING NWD WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.

...CNTRL/ERN TX AND SWRN/W-CNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
DIURNAL HEATING AMIDST A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FRONT AND ALONG ANY NWD-ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH AN EML WILL LIKELY
INHIBIT STORM COVERAGE/DEPTH. AS SUCH...SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE NOT
BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

...SWRN TX AND SERN NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
UPSLOPE FLOW N OF THE SFC FRONT MAY SUPPORT SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BENEATH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AMIDST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ASCENT IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG/DEEP TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED DEEP
CONVECTION.

...LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
NWD-EXTENDING PLUME OF MODESTLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE GULF OF CA. STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE
E/SE OF THE CLOSED LOW MAY AID IN OCCASIONAL STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY SFC WINDS.
HOWEVER...BUOYANCY SHOULD BE VERY MEAGER IN THE ABSENCE OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...LIMITING ANY SVR THREAT.

...CNTRL CA COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING THE MID-LEVEL LOW OVERLAY THE REGION. SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...THOUGH WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD
MINIMIZE ANY SVR THREAT.

...ERN OK...SERN KS...AR...SRN MO LATE TONIGHT...
INCREASING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT
AS A LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.
HOWEVER...THE STRONGER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST TO THE NORTH OF
ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...LIMITING THE THREAT FOR ANY ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SVR HAIL.

..COHEN/BROYLES.. 10/10/2012

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