DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110059
SWODY1
SPC AC 110057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES OVER WRN
CONUS...WITH NRN-STREAM RIDGING OVER CANADIAN PAC COAST AND
WELL-DEFINED/CUT-OFF CYCLONE COVERING PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST.
CYCLONE IS FCST TO DRIFT SEWD OVER CA COAST THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...WHILE STG RIDGING PERSISTS TO ITS E ACROSS NERN MEX...W
TX...NM...AND UT. IN NRN STREAM...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS MUCH OF ERN CONUS AND CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...THOUGH HEIGHTS ARE
RISING OVER PLAINS DUE TO EWD DEPARTURE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
UPPER GREAT LAKES.

AT SFC...23Z ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW IN ACT/TPL
AREA...WITH FRONT ESEWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL LA...AND WSWWD INTO BIG
BEND REGION. BOUNDARY STILL WAS MOVING SWD AS COLD FRONT OVER LA
AND E TX...BUT DECELERATING..WHILE IT HAS BECOME QUASISTATIONARY
ELSEWHERE. FRONTAL ZONE FROM CENTRAL TX WWD SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NWD
OVERNIGHT...WHILE BROAD PLUME OF ELEVATED LOW-LEVEL WAA/RETURN FLOW
OCCURS N OF SFC FRONT.

...S TX TO ARKLATEX/WRN OZARKS REGIONS...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER
MIDDLE-LOWER TX COASTAL PLAIN EWD TO GULF WATERS. THIS IS OCCURRING
AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTING ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG
MLCAPE...WEAKLY CAPPED...BASED ON 00Z BRO/CRP/LCH RAOBS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE AND DEPTH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT NWD FROM THAT
AREA TO WRN OZARKS REGION...AS BROAD ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT BOOSTS
INCREASINGLY MOIST PARCELS TO LFC.

...LOWER CO RIVER REGION TO SRN NV AND CENTRAL CA COAST...
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IN TWO
PRIMARY CORRIDORS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE BETWEEN...
1. YUM-LAS SWATH NWD INTO SRN NV...WHERE PLUME OF 50S F SFC DEW
POINTS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ARE JUXTAPOSED WITH
PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WAA PLUME.
2. COLD-CORE PROXIMITY CONVECTION AND NW-FRINGE OF WARM-CONVEYOR
REGIME OVER CENTRAL CA...WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
STEEP AMIDST AT LEAST MRGL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

SMALL HAIL AND STG GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN EITHER REGIME...BUT SVR
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LOW AND CONDITIONAL FOR AOA 5% PROBABILITIES.

..EDWARDS.. 10/11/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.