DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 101256
SWODY1
SPC AC 101254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL TRACK EWD TO
NEW ENGLAND...WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW OFF OF THE CA COAST IS
EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND AND BEGIN EJECTING ENEWD BY LATE IN
THE PERIOD. BETWEEN THESE FEATURES...MID/UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES WHILE BEGINNING TO RETREAT NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE SRN
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE CONUS
SHOULD BE GREATER COMPARED TO TUESDAY...ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

...SE TX/SW LA NWD TO THE OZARKS...
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL REGIONS OF SE
TX/SW LA DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT AN EML AND LACK OF LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE FRONT FROM
NE TX/NW LA NWD INTO THE OZARKS. EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-35 KTS MAY
SUPPORT SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT STRONGEST ASCENT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE MOST FAVORABLE ELEVATED BUOYANCY.

...CA...NV...WRN UT...WRN AZ...
TSTM COVERAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW SHOULD EXPAND
INLAND OVER THE SWRN CONUS ON WED. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE
FOCUSED IN TWO MAIN AREAS...ONE ALONG THE CNTRL/SRN COAST OF CA IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND
A SECOND AREA ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WHERE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ENHANCED DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

...ERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION OF WRN NY...
COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND A FAVORABLE WLY FETCH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED LTG ACTIVITY.

..DEAN/CORFIDI.. 10/10/2012

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