DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 101728
SWODY2
SPC AC 101726

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN MO/NRN AR INTO THE WRN
TN VALLEY...

...SRN MO/NRN AR INTO NWRN TN...

SECONDARY SURGE OF CONTINENTAL AIR WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE
PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THURSDAY WHICH WILL FORCE A SFC BOUNDARY INTO
SRN KS/CNTRL MO BY 12/00Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WILL RETURN ACROSS OK INTO SWRN MO AS LLJ VEERS AND FOCUSES
ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND THE DEEPER WLY COMPONENT ALOFT...STEEP LAPSE
RATES/INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ADVECTED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR
INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE TN VALLEY. LATEST THINKING IS NEAR-POST
FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ACROSS SRN MO DURING THE EVENING HOURS THEN PROPAGATE SEWD TOWARD
THE WRN TN VALLEY PRIOR TO SUNRISE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
STRONG CLOUD LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF
GENERATING HAIL...SOME OF IT COULD EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. GIVEN THAT
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS THIS REGION HAVE OPTED
TO INCREASE SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED HAIL.

...SRN PLAINS...

SHORT-WAVE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SRN HIGH PLAINS UNTIL LATE IN
THE PERIOD WHEN HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN RESPONSE TO SWRN U.S. UPPER
LOW. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS FAR
WEST TX ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS THE DEMARCATION
OF DRYLINE BY PEAK HEATING. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ALONG THE
DRYLINE SHOULD ENABLE READINGS TO APPROACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT STRONG
AND ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITHIN MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEARED REGIME. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL COULD
ACCOMPANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION.


...SWRN U.S...

12HR MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 90M WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY INTO AZ LATE DAY2. FOCUSED EXIT REGION OF
UPPER JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THIS REGION ENHANCING THE PROSPECT FOR
CONVECTION WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED BUT WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM SERN NV INTO NRN AZ CERTAINLY ARE MORE THAN
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ENCOURAGE LOW-TOPPED TSTM ACTIVITY. GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT
MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL NOT INCREASE SEVERE PROBS ACROSS
THIS REGION BUT HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE MORE ROBUST
CONVECTION.

..DARROW.. 10/10/2012

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.